Several more “low” days, which is great. 42 was today’s number. For 3 days in a row we’ve landed below 60 and 6 days in a row below 75. However, as I’ve mentioned I believe there’s the possibility of a mini-surge on Friday/Saturday. Also, there’s an update on why the
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King County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 5-11
Why is Lee Smith’s picture on my blog today? Because yesterday’s COVID-19 infection number for King County was 46! That’s a low number – by my count, the lowest since March 10th! That’s 2 months ago! It’s hard to find jersey numbers in the 100s. If you’ve been reading this
Continue readingKing County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 5-8
Here’s a first: King County published today’s results 30 minutes early. That has never happened! Usually, it’s posted at least two hours late from their scheduled 1 pm release. Today’s number was 77, certainly above the models at 28 & 60. I am very curious about what will happen this
Continue readingKing County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 5-7 PART 2
Can you believe it has been 70 days since the first COVID-19 infection here in King County? It seems like a long time, however, it also seems like just yesterday. 93 was today’s number. Significantly above both models. Interestingly, 93 was the number for yesterday alone, meaning there were no
Continue readingKing County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 5-7
I’m back! Let’s start with the charts… The models still have good fit. However, over the past two weeks, numbers haven’t really declined. Here are the last two weeks zoomed-in. Pretty flat. So what should we expect moving forward? I expect that line to remain pretty flat, even as Jay
Continue readingKing County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 5-4
I took 1 day off and look what happened. yesterday, King County reported negative-43 cases. That’s not a misprint. A big chunk of recent positive tests were wiped off the books – by my count over 100 from the past week. Numbers that were in the 100s are now in
Continue readingKing County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 5-3
I missed a day blogging yesterday – sorry about that. I had quite the streak going. It was the Elementary State Chess Tournament. Another day in the 100s. 100 exactly, to be precise. Again, both models were off – predicting a much faster decline. It makes sense that if the
Continue readingKing County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 5-1
This thing just isn’t flattening out as fast as everyone hoped. Another above-expectation number today. And, tomorrow is cleanup day (aka Saturday) where typically we see upward revisions from the previous few weeks. Today’s number was 99, above both models. Tomorrow’s predictions remain mostly the same: 74 and 51 for
Continue readingKing County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 4-30
Another (relatively) high day. This is not good if we want Jay Inslee to open things up for “Washingtonions.” 126 reported infections in King County today. That number includes revising upward the infections Tuesday to 113, which is tied as the highest daily number in 2 weeks. Another impact of
Continue readingKing County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 4-29
King County came in high today: 128 infections. Almost triple the prediction from the “optimistic” model and almost double the logarithmic model. That being said, both models are sticking with their guns for tomorrow and still remain very predictive. I wonder what a day like today does to Inslee as
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