Machine wins again. I took the over, and King County definitely came in under: 30 for the day. Could this be the first sign that social distancing is working? The daily model has hit an inflection point. The exponential curve has flattened and tops out in the next few weeks.
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King County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 3-16
Machine defeats Man! 68 reported infections today vs. the model coming in at 73. Well done model! I had predicted a similar day to Sunday, with somewhere in the ~30 range because of the weekend. So far, it’s Man:1, Machine:1. The model’s r-squared value has improved and is showing hitting
Continue readingKing County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 3-15
Man was wiser than machine today. Coming into the weekend, the model said 72, but I knew it was going to be a lot lower than that. I said 50-60, and King County actuals came in at 32. It could be the impact of the school closures and social distancing
Continue readingKing County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 3-14
The model did a great job again: predicted 68, and came in at 60. Don’t forget that this is the weekend, which could lower reported infections. The model says 72 for tomorrow – I’m guessing it comes in a little lower than that due to the weekend (say, 50-60). Let’s
Continue readingKing County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 3-12 and 3-13
Well, the model nailed it today! Model predicted 59 infections, and King County actuals came in at 58. A broken watch is right twice a day! The model barely changed day-over-day, and R-squared value is improving. Tomorrow’s forecast is 67 reported infections. It will be interesting to see if the
Continue readingKing County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 3-11
Ok folks, yesterday’s prediction was a dud. I predicted 14, and King County came in at 74. Model is updated: New prediction for Wednesday is 64. Some regression to the mean. We’ll see if this one is way off as well. R-squared decreased with the big jump today.
Continue readingKing County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 3-10
I built a model to predict King County, Washington, daily Corona Virus infections. My model says there will be a bit of regression to the mean today, with 14 infections (vs. 33 yesterday), putting us at 130. However, 14 would still be the 3rd highest day on record for King
Continue readingHere’s what’s exciting (me) about cloud in 2019
Re-posting an article I wrote for the online magazine “Emerge” entitled “Here’s what’s exciting us about cloud in 2019, February 11, 2019. Cloud computing has sure had its ups and downs along the hype cycle. While cloud continues to grow at a steady clip, outrageous predictions, such as 92% of all compute and workloads
Continue readingPro Bowl
So I’m a sucker and watched part of the Pro Bowl today. I’m trying to figure out what was worse: Completely empty stands (which would never happen in the MLB despite rain) The fact that the NFL has to write “NFL All-Star Game” on the screen in case fans don’t
Continue readingWhat I learned about product marketing from buying a car
I had to replace my poor Passat early December, so I was back on the market for a car. Since it has been over 15 years since I last bought a car, I found myself faced front-and-center by terrific product marketing at the various car companies… Smart Packaging and Pricing
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