College Football Bowl Pick-em guide

Who to pick this year in your college football pool? No fear – here’s your guide to who will win this year in the college football bowls.

Some people think they know who will win. I don’t. But, I have a system to select which teams are more likely to win than others, and following this system has done better for me than worse.

Guiding Principles:

1. Bet on the home team – the home team generally has a 2.5-3 point advantage. I believe Vegas underweights this advantage during bowl season
2. If the coach is gone, bet against the team
3. For Big Conference vs. Sisters of the Poor, bet against the sisters
4. If I watched the team simply implode over the year (i.e. I have no confidence in them), pick against them
5. Pick teams that had better records in 2010, as a signal of more-likely-to-win-teams
6. Flip a Coin (based on conference)

Home teams:

Date	Bowl	Team	Line
12/17	Famous Idaho Potato Bowl	Utah State	-1.5
12/17	R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl	Louisiana-Lafayette	+4.5
12/20	Beef ‘O’ Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl	FIU	-4
1/9	Allstate BCS National Championship Game	LSU	-1
12/29	Champs Sports Bowl	Florida Sate	-3
12/31	Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas	Texas A&M	-10.5
12/31	AutoZone Liberty Bowl	Vanderbilt	-2.5
1/2	TicketCity Bowl	Houston	-5.5
12/27	Belk Bowl	NC State	-2.5

 

How can Alabama be favored in the national championship game? It doesn’t make any sense. LSU beat Alabama on the road already, and now they have a home game. While Saban made 2 tactical errors with Marquis Maze (throwing the football, and punt return) that he won’t repeat, Les Miles shouldn’t have any problems with a 5-point swing in his favor by being at home.

Teams playing against Absent Coaches:

12/24	Sheraton Hawaii Bowl	Nevada	+6.5
12/26	AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl	Missouri	-5
12/28	Military Bowl	Air Force	+3
12/22	MAACO Bowl Las Vegas	Boise State	-13.5
1/2	Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl	Florida	-2
1/7	BBVA Compass Bowl	SMU	+3.5
1/8	GoDaddy.com Bowl	Northern Illinois	+1.5

 

Nevada is playing against Southern Miss, whose Larry Fedora is long gone. Missouri is playing North Carolina, who is on the other side of the Larry Fedora move, and Air Force is facing Tim Beckman-less Toledo. I don’t like picking against Ohio State. However, there is no way I can pick any of these teams.

Big Conference Picks:

12/27	Little Caeasars Pizza Bowl	Purdue	-2.5
12/31	Hyundai Sun Bowl	Georgia Tech	-3.5

 

Poor Little Sisters of the Poor (Western Michigan and Utah State). They never had a chance.

Pick against the implosion-prone teams:

12/28	Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl	California	+3
12/29	Valero Alamo Bowl	Baylor	-9.5
12/31	Chick-fil-A Bowl	Auburn	-1.5

 

This is un-scientific. But I watched Texas, Washington, and Virginia stink all year. They made no progress (albeit Virginia looked so horrible last year, maybe they actually did make progress). Either way, they deserve to lose this game.

Toss ups, but picking the team that had the better record last year:

12/21	San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl	TCU	-10.5
12/17	New Mexico Bowl	Temple	-7
12/30	Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl	Tulsa	+2.5
12/30	New Era Pinstripe Bowl	Iowa State	+2.5
12/30	Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl	Mississippi State	-7
12/30	Insight Bowl	Oklahoma	-13.5
12/31	Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl	Illinois	-2.5

 

‘nuf said. No clear winner in these games, but picking the winner purely on last years performance.

Toss ups, but picking pro-Big Ten and Pac-12, and anti SEC:

1/2	Outback Bowl	Michigan State	+3.5
1/2	Capital One Bowl	Nebraska	+2
1/2	Rose Bowl Game presented by Vizio	Wisconsin	+6
1/2	Tostitos Fiesta Bowl	Stanford	+3.5
1/3	Allstate Sugar Bowl	Michigan	-3
1/4	Discover Orange Bowl	West Virginia	+3.5
1/6	AT&T Cotton Bowl Classic	Kansas State	+8

 

Don’t have a great rationale, but picking for the Big Ten and Pac-12, and against the SEC and ACC. We’ll see if these pan out.