Posted by I’m pretty irritated with both the Washington Department of Public Health and King County Public Health. Neither posted an update on COVID-19 infections in over 48 hours.
That being said, they just pushed out an update, and the numbers look VERY promising. The lower testing numbers do not appear to be an anomaly. Averaging between 500-1000 tests per day, and the rate of infection has decreased: from 15% last week to about 12% this week.
New infections have leveled off. The model is no longer exponential, and the recent low infection numbers are actually breaking the model: the r-squared has declined the past few days and is now at a measly 0.6142.
For tomorrow, the (formerly) exponential model predicts 212 new infections. I’ll take the under. Also, for tests with a 3-day lag, they’ll be processing weekend tests, which should be an even lower number.
I built a simple linear model since 3/22 and it is a flat line. Predicts ~150 cases tomorrow.
