Posted by 198 was yesterday’s number, and the standard linear model nailed it again (prediction of 185). The polynomial model predicted 144 and had its second day in a row of being too optimistic.
The polynomial model says 151 for today and still shows a gradual decline of infections, predicting 0 by 5/12. The linear model still says we’re going to grow by about 5 per day and says 192 for today.
One interesting thing in yesterday’s numbers: There were 130 infections reported from the previous day, and this is the highest number of “next day” infections that has been reported. Are we seeing more rapid turnaround results, when previously it was taking 3-5 days to get results? And could that be causing artificially high reported numbers for a few days while those results flow through?
My hypothesis is that we could see lower numbers in the near future as faster testing is implemented and there is no more lag effect.
