Posted by A down day for King County, which is good news. 145 new infections. Polynomial model wins (predicted 154). The polynomial model remains the most predictive model with a strong r-squared value of 0.8035 and predicts we’ll hit 0 in 30 days (May 11th).
Predictions for tomorrow:
- Polynomial model: 151
- Linear model: 196 (now predicting we’ll only increase by 4 infections per day)
- Lagged model: 210 (ignores the most recent 3 days due to the lagged effect of infection reporting)
Remember, the next 2 days are reporting the results of weekends and a holiday weekend at that. I’m predicting very low reported infections for the next few days. Then, about a week from now, we may see a spike with people delaying going to the doctor, and perhaps some illicit Easter gatherings could spread the virus.