Posted by 164 reported infections today in King County. A tad higher than the polynomial model’s projection of 155 and slightly lower than the linear model’s prediction of 196.
I was expecting a down day, however, it was higher than I was expecting. When I dig into the numbers a bit, exactly 1/2 of the reported infections are from yesterday, and the other half is spread pretty evenly across the previous 2 weeks.
New hypothesis: Did the King County Department of Public Health use Saturday to “catch up” from a processing backlog? Although it’s hard to imagine why they’re struggling with reporting test results typically under one thousand, we know they can’t keep up with the numbers and haven’t published negative test results in a long time. If this hypothesis is true, look for a big “down” day tomorrow due to weekend/Easter, and a snap-back to reality on Tuesday’s reporting.
Monday predictions:
- 144 for the Polynomial model (and 0 infections in 26 days).
- 196 for the linear model (same prediction as today).
