Posted by I predicted today’s number would be down due to a variety of factors: weekend reporting, Easter Holiday, and Saturday as a “catch-up” day for processing old data. How did that prediction turn out?
Pretty well I think! King County reported 123 new infections, the lowest number in a long time (the model predicted 144 – not bad). 91 of those infections came from Sunday itself, making up 74% of the day’s reported infections. Compare that to Saturday’s data reported on Sunday, which had 82 of 164 reported infections occurring on the previous day itself – only 50%. That confirms in my mind that Saturday was a “catch-up day” and more tests are moving to same-day reporting. Hopefully all of them soon.
The Polynomial model was closest to the pin for the 2nd straight day and is still looking like the most powerful model. 23 days until 0 infections! Predicting 137 for tomorrow.
The linear model is chugging along predicting 194 tomorrow.
My analysis on top of the models’ predictions: I think we could see a mini-spike tomorrow from people not wanting to go to get checked out over Easter weekend – this impact could be spread over the next few days. Don’t forget about the potential for a mini-surge from “illicit” Easter parties as well – 5-7 days from now. :)
