Posted by There’s always regression to the mean. For the first time in a while, King County reported a number (112) that exceeded the model’s prediction (105). Today’s number approached breaking the 7-day moving average, which would be a bad sign.
I’m not super surprised by today’s number coming after Easter. Let’s see what the next few days hold to see if this is a trend – I’ll be watching that moving average to see if we can continue to make progress vs. just plateau.
Tomorrow’s prediction: 102. Model still says 14 days to 0 – we’ll see.
