Posted by I’m back!
Let’s start with the charts…
The models still have good fit. However, over the past two weeks, numbers haven’t really declined. Here are the last two weeks zoomed-in. Pretty flat.
So what should we expect moving forward? I expect that line to remain pretty flat, even as Jay Inslee starts to open up Washington. “Super spreading” events are not going to take place: big events, large groups, choir rehearsals, etc. While people will be out more, the impact to R0 should be low.
What do the models say:
- The polynomial model is pretty optimistic, predicting 28. I think the predictive power of this model will drop off pretty quickly.
- The logarithmic model is predicting 66. Which seems pretty optimistic at this point as well but we’ll see.