The model predicted 19, and King County came in at 23. Very close. The interesting development today: the past two days have had the lowest % of positive test results since testing began. 1.6% on Monday and 1.4% yesterday. That’s pretty low when we were in double-digits not too long
Continue readingKing County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 6-10
The model said 20, but we came in yesterday at 29. King County also bumped up slightly in cases per 100k residents and now exceed the arbitrary standard for entry into Phase 2. I expect we’ll slide under it again soon and be eligible for phase 2 next week. Still
Continue readingKing County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 6-8
King County Public Health changed the data format again and went a few days without updates. Finally they have caught back up. We were in the 40s and 50s all week. The 2-week average finally dipped below 25 infections per 100k residents (just barely), so we should be good to
Continue readingKing County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 6-3
Hello my 2 readers! Thanks for hanging in there. There was a big spike on Saturday – 82 infections. Which I guess is not super surprising given the typical 5-day lag we see in infections. What happened 5 days before Saturday? Memorial Day. I’m very interested in seeing if and
Continue readingKing County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 5-29
The model predicted 27 for today and King County came in at 29. Nice work model. So, where do we stand as far as getting to phase 2. According to Inslee’s criteria, we need to average less than 10 infections per 100k residents for 14 days. Since there are 2.2
Continue readingKing County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 5-28
The model predicted 30, and yesterday King County came in at 35. Not bad! The model predicts 29 for today.
Continue readingKing County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 5-27
I’m back. While I was gone, the model basically didn’t change in the past 6 days, which is pretty cool. Yesterday’s number of 17 is the lowest since March 6th. The model is predicting 30 for tomorrow, and its r-squared is increasing.
Continue readingKing County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 5-21
Yesterday’s number was 35, which is great! However, there were quite a few revisions down for previous weeks. Nevertheless, 4 days in a row of mid-40s and below. The model is sticking with that theme and predicting 40 new infections for today’s 1pm release. Check out that fit curve!
Continue readingKing County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 5-19
So, we did end up seeing a mini-spike from Mothers’ Day. Here’s what it looked like: It may not look like much of a spike, but it represents a 75%-100% increase in infections vs. what would have normally happened. It suggests an R0 of ~1.5 vs. an R0 of <1
Continue readingKing County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 5-14
Uh oh. A little spike today. 86 was today’s number, the highest in 8 days. Could we see the revenge of Mothers’ Day Weekend? Or, was it just a blip? The logarithmic model predicts 49 tomorrow. The polynomial model says 10 for tomorrow, but it’s getting weaker. Unfortunately, these models
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