Today was a low number. The lowest number of daily infections reported since March 15. There were 64 infections today, smack in-between the two models of 54 or 73. The optimistic model says 49 for tomorrow and 7 days to 0. The logarithmic model predicts 69 for tomorrow.
Continue readingKing County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 4-27
King County announced 78 new infections today (almost all occurred on Sunday – no data cleanup), between the two models at 61 and 82. I’ll keep running the two models in parallel. The polynomial model says 54 infections tomorrow and 8 days to 0. We’ll start calling this the optimistic
Continue readingKing County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 4-26 – (with an all-new model!)
101 was today’s number. Model said 63. It’s the fourth day in a row that King County has come in above the model. The curve is still looking pretty good though and the r-squared is strong. The model is predicting 61 for tomorrow. However, I was getting a little bored
Continue readingKing County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 4-25
Happy Data Cleanup Day (aka Saturday). King County reported 122 infections, almost half of which were spread out over the past few weeks. So much for clean data. Also, I’ll continue to note that the county does not provide us common folk data on negative tests and total tests administered,
Continue readingKing County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 4-24
The model said 67, but the county came in at 120 for the 2nd day in a row. Only 3 out of ever 5 infections were from Thursday – the rest were spread over the past few weeks. Despite the mini-spike the past few days, the model is calling for
Continue readingKing County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 4-23
Don’t freak out, but there was a little spike today. 120 reported infections in King County vs. the model’s prediction of 69. 1/3 of the infections were delayed from the past few weeks, which bumped up the number. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: I think we’re
Continue readingKing County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 4-22
The model is humming. The model predicted 77, and King County came in at 70. The model predicts 69 for tomorrow. 10 days to 0.
Continue readingKing County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 4-21
Ring the bell for the model. It said 85, King County came in at 86. Nice work model. Tomorrow’s number is 77. 11 days to 0 (we’ll see about that one).
Continue readingKing County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 4-20
The model said 95, and the county came in today a bit above that at 121. However, 44% of the infections we from earlier in the week/month/year. I’m surprised there is still such a lag. The model isn’t flinching – predicting 85 for tomorrow and 0 in 12 days. That
Continue readingKing County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 4-19
Good job model! The model predicted 95, and King County came in at 109. Very similar situation to last Sunday: ~70% of infections were from the previous day, and the remainder were spread out over the past 3 weeks (for reference, last Sunday reported 121 infections). While the polynomial model
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