Tag: CoronaVirus

The model said 67, but the county came in at 120 for the 2nd day in a row. Only 3 out of ever 5 infections were from Thursday – the rest were spread over the past few weeks. Despite the mini-spike the past few days, the model is calling for

Ring the bell for the model. It said 85, King County came in at 86. Nice work model. Tomorrow’s number is 77. 11 days to 0 (we’ll see about that one).

The model said 95, and the county came in today a bit above that at 121. However, 44% of the infections we from earlier in the week/month/year. I’m surprised there is still such a lag. The model isn’t flinching – predicting 85 for tomorrow and 0 in 12 days. That

Good job model! The model predicted 95, and King County came in at 109. Very similar situation to last Sunday: ~70% of infections were from the previous day, and the remainder were spread out over the past 3 weeks (for reference, last Sunday reported 121 infections). While the polynomial model

Is it groundhog day? Not from the monotony of quarantine, but the idiosyncrasies of King County Department of Public Health Coronavirus reporting. Today they announced 161 infections – the highest since last Saturday, which was a very similar 164. Another similarity: 47% of infections were from earlier in the week/month/year

Really excited about another low day: 77 infections reported today. 75% of those are from Tuesday. I really wish we could see how many tests are being conducted and what % are positive. The polynomial model predicts 105 for tomorrow and 0 in 2 weeks. WOW! I believe the former

I predicted today’s number would be down due to a variety of factors: weekend reporting, Easter Holiday, and Saturday as a “catch-up” day for processing old data. How did that prediction turn out? Pretty well I think! King County reported 123 new infections, the lowest number in a long time

A down day for King County, which is good news. 145 new infections. Polynomial model wins (predicted 154). The polynomial model remains the most predictive model with a strong r-squared value of 0.8035 and predicts we’ll hit 0 in 30 days (May 11th). Predictions for tomorrow: Polynomial model: 151 Linear

Updating based on today’s #s: Another big day – one of the biggest on record for King County. 231 reported infections and 19 deaths. Needless to say, the upward linear regression model wins for the 3rd straight day (predicted 192). Now I’m not surprised that they closed down all the

King County came in at 202 today, way above the “new” polynomial model at 145 and much closer to the original linear model (predicted 181). The polynomial model though is still calling for a steep decline in infections moving forward and “0” new infections by May 7th (which has moved