Tag: CoronaVirus

Good news all around. King County reported 111 infections today (below the model’s estimate of 166). 12% of tests were positive, down for the 2nd straight day. Tests remain at about 1,000. The model is sticking with its guns and predicting 160 tomorrow. I also built a model using only

Sometimes, the model just nails it. The model said 127, and the county came in at 130. Not bad. What is bad: 5 straight days above 100 infections for King County. The model calls for 138 tomorrow, however, based on the weekly “seasonality” of dips due to weekend testing, I’m

This was the day I was expecting all week. 131 infections reported – more than double the model’s estimate. Here’s my explanation of what may have happened: Could there be a 3-day (+ more !!!) lag in getting results? Let’s play this out. The past two days had very low

The model did a great job again: predicted 68, and came in at 60. Don’t forget that this is the weekend, which could lower reported infections. The model says 72 for tomorrow – I’m guessing it comes in a little lower than that due to the weekend (say, 50-60). Let’s

I built a model to predict King County, Washington, daily Corona Virus infections. My model says there will be a bit of regression to the mean today, with 14 infections (vs. 33 yesterday), putting us at 130. However, 14 would still be the 3rd highest day on record for King